Risky Business Project was founded by Michael R. Bloomberg, Henry M. Paulson, Jr., and Thomas F. Steyer in order to analyze the economic risks presented by climate change and find business opportunities to reduce the risks.

The report linked here is an extensive study regarding how the United States could move to clean energy step by step over thirty years from year 2020. This report has a lot of interesting data, including a graph of regional impacts analyzed by energy source – see page 43!

Read the entire report:

https://riskybusiness.org/site/assets/uploads/sites/5/2016/10/RBP-FromRiskToReturn-WEB.pdf

Excerpt from the report (see page 5):

Our Modeling

Our conclusions are based on a sophisticated energy, economic and infrastructure planning model that compares scenarios through 2050. Each of the four pathways we modeled would achieve an 80 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2050, and would do one of the following: (see footnote 1)

• Rely heavily on renewable energy;

• Significantly expand reliance on nuclear power;

• Include a substantial amount of fossil fuel power plants with carbon capture and storage; or

• Generate electricity from a relatively even mix of these three zero- and low-carbon resources (the Mixed Resources pathway).

Each pathway also assumes a different combination of transportation fuels (electricity, biofuels, and fossil fuels). For each of these pathways, we modeled changes in nationwide and sectoral energy use, electricity use, fuel use, carbon emissions, and investment. We do not endorse any specific pathway.

Capital Investment Needs

Under our Mixed Resources pathway, we found that the total additional capital investment necessary to cut carbon emissions 80 percent economy-wide by 2050 would be (see footnote 2):

• $220 billion per year from 2020 to 2030
• $410 billion per year between 2030 and 2040
• $360 billion per year between 2040 and 2050

These capital investments would significantly reduce fuel costs, with the savings growing every decade. The savings would be (see footnote 3):

• $70 billion per year from 2020 to 2030
• $370 billion per year from 2030 to 2040
• $700 billion per year from 2040 to 2050.

The largest additional investments would be in power generation ($55 billion per year); advanced

Footnotes:

1 Our modeling was limited to carbon emissions (CO2 ) which represent 81 percent of total U.S. GHG emissions. We did not model pathways that would achieve the needed reductions in the other greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases).

2 Results presented here are decadal averages for the Mixed Resources pathway that incorporates a variety of low-carbon energy sources, one of four pathways analyzed. All modeling results are expressed in 2014 dollars unless otherwise noted.

3 Fuel savings are based on a U.S. government “business-as-usual” projection of fossil fuel prices in which: oil prices are $79/ bbl in 2020, escalating an average of 3.4% per year out to 2050; natural gas prices are $5/Mbtu in 2020, escalating at an average of 2.7% per year out to 2050; and coal prices are $1.9/Mbtu in 2020, escalating at an average of 1.4% per year out to 2050. The analysis also explores a scenario in which a global shift to clean energy results in lower fossil fuel prices as demand decreases.